Thursday, April 28, 2011

Frosted Lucky Charms, they're magically delicious

by Ruchi

Frosted Lucky Charms,
They're magically delicious!

Last night was a storm. A big storm. It was very noisy. At 4 am, I heard my little boy crying. I waited to see if he'd fall back asleep. Then I heard the baby. They share a room. Ah, yes. I get up and check it out. He's laying in bed with a very sad face. Full lights on in the room. Baby is jumping delightedly in her crib. "Hi, Nosson!" I say. "Are you OK?" Quiet. "Did you turn the lights on? I think you woke up Nomi." (4 am is not my most empathetic hour.)

Nosson: "I didn't wake up Nomi! SHE woke up ME!"

Pause.

It's the old issue of causality.


Say we run a study and conclude that kids who are blond consume more pb&j than their brunette peers. What determines causality? That is, does being blond ignite a desire for pb&j consumption? Or does ingesting pb&j turn your hair blond?

Walking into the room, it may be likely that the facts (child 1 is awake, child 2 is awake, the lights are on) are correlated, but what is causing which is not apparent at all. The facts, in fact, may not be correlated at all.


Here's another one:

Kids in wealthier neighborhoods do better in school.

Does the wealth cause brains? Does the value of education, which arguably creates wealth, also cause good grades in the next generation? Or is it that another, external factor, causes both the value of education, and the combined desire and ability to achieve wealth?

And what does all this have to do with Lucky Charms??


HOW many times have you heard someone use the word "lucky" when they really mean something else? Luck is total reliance on random circumstances, irrespective of effort, spiritual or physical. In my opinion, the word should be stricken from the Jewish vocabulary. "Fortunate" is slightly better. But my favorite word is "blessed." You know why? Jews don't believe in Lucky Charms. We believe in Blessings. Blessings have a causal factor. And that factor is G-d.

When I walk into a situation, good or bad, and I try to size up correlation and causality, I may arrive at erroneous conclusions. I enter in the 9th inning and have no clue what's flying. (I wouldn't know what was flying even in the first inning, but so be it.) But one thing I do know - all causality returns back to G-d.

When I say that I am "blessed" that the weather is good, "blessed" that I got a good return on an investment, "blessed" that my child made a really nice friend, I acknowledge and credit that causal factor in my life. When I rely on Lucky Charms, I ignore it.

Also, they're not kosher.

;)